From ambition to delivery: Reflections on CEDA's NSW Energy Outlook

New South Wales is entering a decisive phase of its energy transition, with the task ahead no longer defined only by ambition but by delivery. At the beginning of July, we attended the CEDA NSW Energy Outlook event, where leaders from across the sector explored what it will take to build a system that is cleaner, more reliable, more affordable, and fairer for communities, while responding to rising demand, shifting investment conditions, and the practical realities of major infrastructure development.

Here, three Nousers reflect on the key messages and lessons from the event, and what they reveal about the capabilities, coordination, and leadership needed to turn transition plans into outcomes.

New South Wales has made substantial progress over the past decade, moving from a system dominated by coal generation to one in which renewable energy now provides around half the mix and is set to grow further. That progress has not happened by accident. It has been supported by a broadly bipartisan commitment to net zero, the confidence created by long-term planning, and a continuing willingness by governments to adjust the policy and regulatory settings needed to deliver the transition in practice. Planning and environmental approvals remain a common point of frustration, but recent measures such as the Development Coordination Authority and proposed legislation to prioritise energy developments show a recognition that delivery processes need to match the urgency of the task. NSW’s four network businesses have also played an important role by expanding the network, taking a customer perspective, and helping households access the benefits of new energy technologies.

These strengths will help NSW continue to make progress, but they will not be enough on their own. The current pipeline of generation assets is not sufficient to cover the exit of coal or the expected increase in electricity demand from data centres, electrification, and broader economic growth. More renewable generation is needed not only to meet net zero objectives, but to meet demand at the lowest possible cost, as AEMO’s latest Integrated System Plan makes clear. That point remains poorly understood. A diverse generation mix will also be critical to system stability, efficiency, and affordability, which makes the slow pace of new wind generation an increasing concern and a priority for further policy attention. Alongside mechanisms such as the Capacity Investment Scheme and Long-Term Energy Service Agreements, policymakers must also remain focused on the cost side of the investment equation. Projects need to deliver acceptable financial returns if private capital is to keep flowing at the scale required. The next phase of the transition will therefore depend on maintaining political commitment while sharpening the practical settings that make projects investable, timely, and deliverable.

Simon Guttmann, Principal

The event reinforced the fact that the energy transition is now as much a delivery challenge as it is a technology or policy challenge. Renewable energy infrastructure will only be built at the scale and pace required if communities can see credible local benefits, responsible resource use, and genuine accountability from proponents and government. This is especially important in regional NSW, where Renewable Energy Zones and new transmission infrastructure are visible, place-based changes that can quickly generate resistance if communities feel impacts are being imposed rather than negotiated. Social licence can no longer be treated as a communications exercise after decisions have been made; it needs to shape project design, benefit sharing, environmental management, and the way governments explain and sequence reform.

The discussion also highlighted that certainty for investors, developers, and communities will depend on how well NSW balances speed with trust. Faster planning pathways, clearer approvals, and stronger coordination across Renewable Energy Zones can help unlock capital and accelerate delivery before coal exits the system. But streamlining will only strengthen confidence if it is paired with robust environmental safeguards, credible biodiversity outcomes, and meaningful engagement. The transition is also widening into a broader set of system-wide trade-offs, as data centres, electrification, and digital infrastructure reshape demand and intensify pressure on energy, water, land use, and consumers. The central task for government is therefore not simply to approve more projects faster, but to coordinate across sectors so the transition remains investable, environmentally responsible, and publicly legitimate.

Anna Doherty, Director

It seems clear that the energy transition is changing not only what energy organisations deliver, but how they understand their role in the system. Organisations built for a more stable and predictable operating environment are now navigating variable renewable supply, shifting demand patterns, greater customer participation, and rising expectations from government and communities. Electric vehicles, rooftop solar, storage, and more active consumers are reshaping demand and blurring the line between customer and participant. This is forcing energy organisations to reconsider their purpose, operating models, and relationship with the public. It is also creating a stronger sense of mission: the transition is no longer just an infrastructure or decarbonisation task, but a broader public-purpose agenda requiring organisations to support system resilience, affordability, community confidence, and long-term economic opportunity.

The discussion also highlighted that delivery will depend on a different mix of workforce capabilities and leadership behaviours. Technical expertise remains essential, but organisations increasingly need adaptability, learning, cross-functional problem-solving, and the ability to make decisions amid uncertainty. Workforce development must therefore be understood as both a capability challenge and a community opportunity. The sector will need deeper pipelines from schools, vocational training, higher education, and ongoing professional development, particularly as competition for skilled workers intensifies across energy and other major infrastructure programs. Done well, this can strengthen social licence by creating local jobs, career pathways, and visible community benefits. Collaboration will be equally critical. No single organisation can optimise its way through a transition of this scale from inside its own silo. Leaders will need to coordinate across the energy value chain, government, industry, and communities, with shared visibility of priorities, clearer trade-offs, and practical mechanisms for solving problems together. The transition will ultimately test not only technical delivery, but the sector’s collective capacity to align purpose, people, and execution.

Chantelle Ashby, Director

The CEDA NSW Energy Outlook event made clear that the next phase of the transition will be defined by execution: building enough generation, transmission, and storage while keeping communities, investors, and consumers engaged. NSW has many of the right ingredients in place, but progress will depend on turning policy momentum into projects that are investable, timely, trusted, and coordinated across the system. The task ahead is therefore not only to accelerate the energy transition, but to deliver it in a way that strengthens confidence, capability, and long-term public value.

Get in touch to discuss how your organisation can better navigate the policy, delivery, workforce, and community challenges of the energy transition.

Connect with Simon Guttmann, Anna Doherty, and Chantelle Ashby on LinkedIn.