It's always been about delivery: Reflections on CEDA's NSW Energy Outlook

New South Wales is entering a decisive phase of its energy transition, with delivering at the scale and pace required the fundamental challenge. At the beginning of July, we attended the CEDA NSW Energy Outlook event. Leaders from across the sector explored what it will take to build a system that meets NSW’s demand for energy, in a way that meets the needs of consumers (both households and industry) and communities, while responding to rising demand, shifting investment conditions, and the practical realities of major infrastructure development.

Here, five Nousers reflect on the key messages and lessons from the event, and what they reveal about the capabilities, coordination, and leadership needed to turn transition plans into outcomes.

New South Wales has made substantial progress over the past decade. While coal remains the largest source of NSW generation, renewable energy is playing a much larger role and is set to grow further. That progress has not happened by accident. It has been supported by a broadly bipartisan commitment to net zero, the confidence created by long-term planning, and a continuing willingness by governments to adjust the policy and regulatory settings needed to deliver the transition in practice. Planning and environmental approvals remain a common point of frustration, but recent measures such as the Investment Delivery Authority, broader planning reforms and proposed legislation to prioritise assessment of energy developments show a recognition that processes need to match the urgency of the task. NSW’s four network businesses have also played an important role by expanding the network, taking a customer perspective, and helping households access the benefits of new energy technologies.

These strengths will help NSW continue to make progress, but they will not be enough on their own. As the sector knows too well, though much less so the public, new generation assets are first and foremost needed to replace our retiring, long-dated coal assets. Yes, renewables are a critical investment to support net zero objectives. Though investment in generation, and transmission, would be needed absent any net zero objectives. The good news, which again the industry knows well though less so the public, is that renewable energy, connected by transmission and distribution, firmed with storage and backed up by gas, remains the least-cost way to deliver secure and reliable electricity as coal exits the system.

Although approvals remain strong, the slower pace of final investment decisions, particularly for wind, is an increasing concern and a priority for further policy attention. Alongside mechanisms such as the Capacity Investment Scheme and Long-Term Energy Service Agreements, policymakers must also remain focused on the cost side of the investment equation. Projects need to deliver acceptable financial returns if private capital is to keep flowing at the scale required. The next phase of the transition will therefore depend on maintaining political commitment while sharpening the practical settings that make projects investable, timely, and deliverable.

Simon Guttmann, Principal

The discussion reinforced that delivering the energy transition is not simply about building enough generation, storage, and network capacity. It also requires deliberate strategic choices about the digital capabilities needed to operate a fundamentally different energy system. Over the next decade, the sector must replace retiring coal generation with growing volumes of solar, wind, grid-scale storage, consumer batteries and other consumer energy resources, while managing the changing role of gas as lower-utilisation firming capacity. The destination is becoming clearer: a system built around renewable generation, connected by transmission and distribution, firmed with storage, backed by gas, and supported by growing consumer participation. The challenge now is ensuring the capabilities, operating models and technologies required to manage that system are developed at the same pace as the physical infrastructure. 

As the generation mix changes, so too does the nature of decision-making. The future grid will need to orchestrate millions of assets and interactions across customers, networks, generators, storage providers and market operators. Operational decisions will need to be made faster, across a broader geographic footprint, and with significantly more information than today's more centralised and predictable system. This represents a fundamental shift from managing the flow of electricity through relatively controllable assets to coordinating a dynamic and distributed ecosystem. The strategic question is no longer whether digital capability matters, but where organisations should prioritise investment to create the greatest operational resilience and system value. 

This points to a growing need for digital intelligence across the energy value chain. Deterministic capabilities will remain essential for engineering, control and system security, while probabilistic approaches such as forecasting, optimisation, simulation, AI and predictive analytics will become increasingly important for managing uncertainty and enabling informed decision-making. Data platforms, operational technology, digital twins, decision-support tools and AI-enabled analytics are therefore becoming critical infrastructure in their own right. Organisations that make the right strategic choices today will be better positioned to manage the increasing complexity of the transition, improve reliability and safety outcomes, and unlock greater value from investments in generation, storage and network infrastructure. The energy transition will ultimately be shaped as much by the quality of our digital decisions as by the physical assets we build. 

Jean-Paul Cardoso, Principal

The NSW energy transition has moved beyond the question of direction. There is now broad alignment around the need for more renewable generation, more storage, stronger transmission and distribution capability, and a more active role for customers. The harder task is converting that alignment into delivery at the speed required, particularly through planning approvals, grid connections and investment decisions that can keep pace with coal retirements and rising demand. 

A recurring message from the event was that the pathway is increasingly clear, but the pace is not yet sufficient. Accelerating renewables and storage will require more than capital. It will depend on smoother approval processes, better coordination across agencies and network businesses, stronger community engagement, and faster connection pathways that give investors and developers confidence to move from commitment to construction. 

Distribution networks are also becoming far more central to the transition. They are no longer simply the local delivery layer of the electricity system. They are where much of the practical complexity now lands, from rooftop solar, batteries and electric vehicles to new load, local constraints, reliability and customer access. The joint NSW Distribution System Plan underscored the value of looking at distribution strategically and collectively, rather than as a set of isolated network issues. 

The discussion also pointed to the need for a more deliberate energy posture on AI. AI will be a source of future electricity demand through data centres and digital infrastructure, but it should also be a capability the sector uses more deliberately for forecasting, network planning, asset utilisation, customer engagement and faster decision-making. Treating AI only as a load risk misses its potential to help manage a more complex, decentralised and data-rich system. 

Finally, customer education and confidence must be treated as core delivery issues. A more dynamic energy system will only work if customers understand what is changing and see clear value in participating. That means clearer communication on solar, batteries, electric vehicles, flexible demand, tariffs and reliability, as well as more consistent messaging across industry so customers are not left to piece together the transition one organisation at a time. 

Craig Hutchinson, Principal

The event reinforced the fact that the energy transition is now as much a delivery challenge as it is a technology or policy challenge. Renewable energy infrastructure will only be built at the scale and pace required if communities can see credible local benefits, responsible resource use, and genuine accountability from proponents and government. This is especially important in regional NSW, where Renewable Energy Zones and new transmission infrastructure are visible, place-based changes that can quickly generate resistance if communities feel impacts are being imposed rather than negotiated. Social licence can no longer be treated as a communications exercise after decisions have been made; it needs to shape project design, benefit sharing, environmental management, and the way governments explain and sequence reform.

The discussion also highlighted that certainty for investors, developers, and communities will depend on how well NSW balances speed with trust. Faster planning pathways, clearer approvals, and stronger coordination across Renewable Energy Zones can help unlock capital and accelerate delivery before coal exits the system. But streamlining will only strengthen confidence if it is paired with robust environmental safeguards, credible biodiversity outcomes, and meaningful engagement. The transition is also widening into a broader set of system-wide trade-offs, as data centres, electrification, and digital infrastructure reshape demand and intensify pressure on energy, water, land use, and consumers. The central task for government is therefore not simply to approve more projects faster, but to coordinate across sectors so the transition remains investable, environmentally responsible, and publicly legitimate.

Anna Doherty, Director

It seems clear that the energy transition is changing not only what energy organisations deliver, but how they understand their role in the system. Organisations built for a more stable and predictable operating environment are now navigating variable renewable supply, shifting demand patterns, greater customer participation, and rising expectations from government and communities. Electric vehicles, rooftop solar, storage, and more active consumers are reshaping demand and blurring the line between customer and participant. This is forcing energy businesses to reconsider their purpose, operating models, and relationship with the public. It is also creating a stronger sense of mission: the transition is no longer just an infrastructure or decarbonisation task, but a broader public-purpose agenda requiring organisations to support system resilience, affordability, community confidence, and long-term economic opportunity.

The discussion also highlighted that delivery will depend on a different mix of workforce capabilities and leadership behaviours. Technical expertise remains essential, but organisations increasingly need adaptability, learning, cross-functional problem-solving, and the ability to make decisions amid uncertainty. Workforce development must therefore be understood as both a capability challenge and a community opportunity. The sector will need deeper pipelines from schools, vocational training, higher education, and ongoing professional development, particularly as competition for skilled workers intensifies across energy and other major infrastructure programs. Done well, this can strengthen social licence by creating local jobs, career pathways, and visible community benefits. Collaboration will be equally critical. No single organisation can optimise its way through a transition of this scale from inside its own silo. Leaders will need to coordinate across the energy value chain, government, industry, and communities, with shared visibility of priorities, clearer trade-offs, and practical mechanisms for solving problems together. The transition will ultimately test not only technical delivery, but the sector’s collective capacity to align purpose, people, and execution.

Chantelle Ashby, Director